It was not quite the Miracle on Ice of the 1980’s but it was a big win for the Americans to defeat the Canadians in their home turf to secure the top seed of the Medal round, but before we can focus on the big dash toward gold comes the qualification round starting tomorrow. So for this week’s Pucking Awesome Hat Trick we will break down the top eight teams and their chances at gold.
8. Switzerland (1-1-1 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The Swiss team is led by a talented goalie in Anaheim Ducks Jonas Hiller and a dominant captain in New York Islanders Mark Streit. Switzerland clinched the eight seed with a thriller 5-4 shootout win over Norway and can had a moral victory by taking mighty Canada to a shootout, but most likely will have to play the US team in the Medal Round.
Player to Watch:
Jonas Hiller got the big contract pre-Olympics and showing his worth by being the driving force for the Swiss team. Hiller in the three group play games had a 3.20 GAA and .893 save percentage. If they have a shot to upset any team in the medal round Hiller will have to be the main factor just like his predecessor Martin Gerber in the Swiss upset of Canada in 2006.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 1 %
Silver – 5 %
Bronze – 7 %
7. Slovakia (2-1-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The Slovaks followed up an undefeated group play in 2006 with a inconsistent showing in group play. They started the tournament with a tough 3-1 loss to the Czech but followed that a night later with an impressive shootout win over Russia. Scoring winger Marian Gaborik, a question mark health wise heading into the Olympics, has been disappointing with only one goal. Marian Hossa has paced the Slovaks with two goals and three points in the three games. Jaroslav Halak has played all three games with an impressive 1.30 GAA and .915 save percentage.
Player to Watch:
Marian Gaborik injured himself in practice right before the Olympics, a thigh laceration that required stitches when he ran into teammate Henrik Lundqvist. One could call it sabotage to try to decrease the medal chances for Slovakia, cause the talented scorer needs to be dominant if the Slovaks want to finish on the podium.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 10%
Silver – 15%
Bronze – 20%
6. Canada (2-1-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The Canadians already had pressure coming into an Olympics on their home turf and a team some experts called the most talented team ever, but now the pressure is 10 folds knowing the route they will have to go to get to the gold medal game. The team survived a flashback scare by beating the Swiss in a shootout but could not hold back the young Americans in a 5-3 loss. The sixth seed Canadians now will have to most likely play the Russia’s in the quarterfinals.
Play To Watch:
Roberto Luongo would be the easiest choice since because of Brodeur’s subpar numbers in group play caused coach Mike Babcock to make a switch of goaltenders for the medal round. With that in mind I will go with Joe Thornton, the power forward who only has one point in three games. What made this Canadian team scary to play against was the familiarity that many teams do not have as they took the entire Sharks first line, and throw Dan Boyle on the power play and they have four fifths of one of the top rated power plays. The team is getting production from Thornton’s teammates Dany Heatley and Patrick Marleau but need Big Joe to finally come through in a big game.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 75%
Silver – 80%
Bronze – 85%
5. Czech Republic (2-1-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The Czech team is a hard team to figure out as they have only a +3 goals differential, the closest by any of the top six teams. They have spread out the scoring wealth and surprisingly are led in scoring by defensemen Marek Zidlicky (5 assists). They had a huge win over the rival Slovaks but fell up short in their quest for a bye by losing a hard fought game against the Russians and I don’t think Jaromir Jagr has gotten up from the Alex Ovechkin hit yet.
Player to Watch:
David Krejci has only one goal in these Olympics, but has looked like the best player on the ice for the Czech team. Head coach Vladimir Ruzicka will have to think heavily about moving the speedy center to top line minutes, maybe with a Patrick Elias (2G-2A) and Jagr (2G-1A).
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 15%
Silver – 45%
Bronze – 50%
4. Finland (2-1-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The Finnish team has quietly put up a good Olympic showing, maybe it is because most of their games were pass midnight east coast time. Teemu Selanne became the most prolific scorer in Olympic history with his two assist, the Finnish Flash in his fifth Olympics has 37 career Olympic points. Playing in an easier group they took care of business beating Belarus and Germany by the combined score of 10-1, but failed to capture the third seed by getting shutout by rivals Sweden.
Player to Watch:
Top defensive pairing of Kimmo Timonen and Sami Salo have already played a combined 139.17 minutes, and 18 shots this tournament and that is against lesser of talent. These two defenders will be relied on heavily as the competition get fiercer and now with news that Joni Pitkanen will be suspended for one game the pressure on these two intensifies as the Finnish team looks to medal in back-to-back Olympics.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 20%
Silver – 40%
Bronze – 45%
3. Russia (2-0-1 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The high flying Russians with 13 goals for were only outscored by the Canadians and Americans (each with 14 goals). Alex Ovechkin has not only been a point machine (4 points) but has been handing out bone crunching game changing hits. Evgeni Malkin, has also not disappointed by leading the Russians in both goals (3) and points (5). The only thing keeping the Russians from the top seed was a surprising 2-1 shootout loss to the Slovaks that saw Alex Ovechkin take two of the four shots taken.
Player to Watch:
Alex Ovechkin has continued his dominant play from the NHL into the International stage and would be the obvious choice on the player to watch for Russia to not only beat Crosby and the Canadians but to win the gold, but I think it will come down to the play of goaltender Evgeni Nabokov. The Kazakhstan native who petitioned to play for the Russia team was the reason they won the gold in the 2008 World Championships and will have to be the difference maker in their quest for gold.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 70%
Silver – 75%
Bronze – 80%
2. Sweden (3-0-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
I think people forget that the Sweden team is the defending Gold Medalist as they went through group play undefeated and loss out on the top seed by a tie breaker. The main reason they won the gold in Turino is the same reason they went undefeated as goalie Henrik Lundqvist has yet to allow a goal in these Olympics in two starts including a big shutout of group rival Finland.
Player to Watch:
As much as I want to select Peter Forsberg since he was not able to help the Swedes win gold in 2006, or go with the goaltender who seems like a brick wall right now, but I will pass the pressure to Daniel Alfredsson. The 37-year-old forward was the key offensive component in Turino with 5 goals and 5 assists in the 8 games. Alfredsson will have to come up big again for the Swedes to repeat as champions.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 80%
Silver – 85%
Bronze – 90%
1. United States (3-0-0 in Group Play)
How They Got Here:
The youngest team in the tournament has made some noise by capturing the top seed in group play. They came out firing in this tournament with a dominant 3-1 win over the defensive Swiss and shocked the hockey world with a 5-3 win over Canada. Ryan Miller has stopped 66 of the 71 shots he has faced and Brian Rafalski, of all people, has scored four goals in the three games, tying Dany Heatley for the Olympic lead in group play.
Player to Watch:
No one will deny that Ryan Miller is a main reason that the USA team defeated Canada and clinched the top seed, and Rafalski’s scoring magic is the other top reason, but the continuing aggressive play of Ryan Kesler, I think will be the difference maker as the tournament goes on. Watching the US Canada game one would of thought it was game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals the way the teams were hitting each other. In the end it came down to an empty net aggressive play by Vancouver Canucks forward Ryan Kesler. For the Americans to match up against the quick forwards of Finland, Sweden and Russia they will need to rely on a physical presence to slow them down and the likes of Kesler, Dustin Brown, Ryan Malone and Brooks Orpik will become more important.
Chances to Medal:
Gold – 72%
Silver – 82%
Bronze – 87%
